Airbus has released its latest Global Services Forecast (GSF), projecting that the aviation services market will double in value to more than US$420 billion by 2045. The growth, driven by a 3.8% compound annual growth rate, reflects a global fleet that is set to expand to 45,550 aircraft and passenger numbers that will double to 10 billion over the same period.
The forecast underscores the scale of the challenge ahead: the industry will need over 2.44 million additional skilled personnel, including 730,000 maintenance technicians, 660,000 pilots, and 1.05 million cabin crew. This demand spans airlines, MRO providers, and training organisations, and will require coordinated investment in recruitment and training pipelines.
Six service segments set for growth
Airbus’s GSF identifies six key service segments that will drive the market’s expansion. Off-wing maintenance remains the largest, expected to reach US$217 billion by 2045, growing at a 3.7% CAGR. Maintenance operations support follows at US$104 billion (4.3% CAGR), while on-wing maintenance is projected at US$36 billion (2.8% CAGR).
The fastest-growing segment is digital and connectivity, which is set to triple to US$27 billion, with a 5.3% CAGR. This reflects the industry’s increasing reliance on data-driven solutions to improve operational efficiency, reduce disruptions, and meet passenger expectations for seamless travel. Modifications and upgrades are forecast at US$21 billion (2.6% CAGR), and training at US$17 billion (3.1% CAGR).
Cristina Aguilar Grieder, Senior Vice President of Customer Services Commercial Aircraft at Airbus, emphasised the need for preparation: “As the global fleet doubles to more than 45,550 aircraft by 2045, we need to get ready.” Her comments point to the urgency for airlines and service providers to invest in workforce development and digital infrastructure now.
Regional dynamics and market outlook
Europe, North America, and China will remain the largest markets for aviation services, but Asia is expected to be the fastest-growing region. This aligns with broader trends in air travel demand, as carriers in the region expand their networks. For example, Vietjet’s new A330 services linking Hanoi to Almaty and Prague illustrate the kind of route expansion that will drive demand for maintenance and training.
The GSF focuses on passenger jets with more than 100 seats and freighters with a payload above 10 tonnes, covering the core of the commercial fleet. This scope means the forecast is directly relevant to major airlines, lessors, and MRO providers, including those that have recently expanded their fleets, such as Avolon’s order for 250 Airbus and Boeing jets.
For travel professionals, the implications are clear: the services market will become an increasingly important revenue stream, and digital tools will be central to capturing it. Airlines and MROs that invest in predictive maintenance and connectivity solutions will be better positioned to meet the demands of a larger, more connected fleet.
Airbus’s forecast also highlights the need for collaboration across the industry. Training providers, for instance, will need to scale up to produce the 660,000 pilots and 1.05 million cabin crew required. This is a challenge that extends beyond airlines to include flight schools and simulator manufacturers.
As the industry prepares for this growth, the focus on digital and connectivity services is particularly noteworthy. The segment’s 5.3% CAGR is the highest among the six, and its tripling in value underscores the shift toward data-driven operations. This is a trend that travel technology vendors and GDS providers should monitor closely, as it will shape their product development strategies.
In summary, Airbus’s GSF paints a picture of a services market that is not only growing but also evolving in its composition. The rise of digital services, combined with the need for massive workforce expansion, will define the next two decades of aviation services. For industry stakeholders, the time to act is now.
