The United States enters the 2026–2027 holiday season with a tale of two travel markets. Domestic consumers are still opening their wallets for festive celebrations, and cities from New York to Orlando are bracing for packed calendars. Yet the international picture is far less rosy: inbound arrivals are sliding, and the country's share of global long-haul travel is shrinking. For airlines, hoteliers, tour operators and destination marketers, the question is whether America's seasonal magic can be converted into sustained global demand.
Inbound spending and arrivals: a sobering forecast
The US Travel Association's November 2026 outlook projects inflation-adjusted international visitor spending will drop by nearly US$11 billion this year, a 6.3% decline to US$163 billion. International overnight arrivals are forecast at 67.8 million, roughly 14.6% below 2019 levels. The association also expects total inflation-adjusted US travel spending to dip 0.7% to US$1.35 trillion, despite a record 2.44 billion domestic trips. Travel prices are projected to rise 7.2% in 2026, more than double the overall inflation forecast of 3.4%.
America's share of global long-haul arrivals has fallen from 10.3% in 2019 to a projected 7.7% in 2026. The US Travel Association does not expect international arrivals to recover to pre-pandemic levels until 2030. The National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) offers a slightly different metric, forecasting 70.5 million total international visitors in 2026 and 74.1 million in 2027. While the two agencies use different methodologies, both underscore the urgent need to rebuild inbound demand.
Domestic spending holds up, but travel competes for dollars
American households are still planning to spend during the festive season, but travel is facing stiff competition from other priorities. Visa Business and Economic Insights forecasts US holiday retail sales will rise 4.5% year-on-year in November and December, the strongest growth since 2021. After inflation, that growth is just 1.1%. Consumers plan to spend an average of US$777 on holiday gifts, up 5.6% from US$736 in 2025.
More than half of survey respondents included travel and live events on their holiday wish lists, yet only 15% prioritised spending on experiences, compared with 27% favouring physical gifts. Visa's payment data also reveals a widening income gap: households earning over US$200,000 were the only group to increase both holiday airfare bookings and spending in September, while lower-income groups cut back.
Circana's 2026 US Holiday Purchase Intentions Study found that 57% of consumers rate current economic conditions as fair or poor, and 49% expect to spend less due to financial uncertainty. Nearly three-quarters plan to use money-saving strategies such as promotional products, rewards points and loyalty programmes. The takeaway for travel suppliers: consumers are not abandoning holiday travel, but they are becoming more selective about where they spend.
Festive attractions: a strong pull, but not enough alone
America's holiday calendar remains a powerful draw. New York City, a perennial favourite, is expected to welcome approximately 8.1 million visitors during the season, according to NYC Tourism + Conventions. The 100th Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade takes place on 26 November, followed by the Rockefeller Center Christmas Tree lighting on 2 December, and the Times Square New Year's Eve celebration.
In Florida, Orlando's theme parks extend the festive season with family-friendly programming. Universal Orlando Resort runs its holiday celebrations from 14 November to 3 January 2027, featuring Grinchmas, Christmas in The Wizarding World of Harry Potter, and its holiday parade. Walt Disney World's EPCOT International Festival of the Holidays runs from 27 November to 30 December.
These events offer clear opportunities for hotels, airlines and tour operators to craft seasonal packages, extend stays and attract families. However, international demand will hinge on more than just festive cheer. Visa processes, border experiences and perceptions of how foreign visitors are treated all influence destination choice. As the Financial Times has reported, overseas arrivals to the US—excluding Canada and Mexico—have been particularly weak, and the country's competitiveness is under scrutiny.
What the industry can do
For travel professionals, the message is clear: the US must become more competitive, accessible and appealing to international travellers. That means addressing visa wait times, improving entry experiences and marketing the country's unique holiday offerings to key source markets. As India emerges as a top source market for global hotel demand, US destinations may need to tailor their outreach to high-growth segments. Similarly, Dubai's unified visa and travel platform offers a model for streamlining entry, something the US could learn from.
The festive season is a prime opportunity to test new strategies. By bundling attractions, accommodation and transport, and by leveraging loyalty programmes and targeted promotions, the industry can convert America's seasonal appeal into year-round growth. But without addressing the structural barriers to inbound travel, the gap between domestic resilience and international weakness will persist.
