European and US carriers are bracing for a winter of reduced schedules as jet fuel prices continue to climb, according to aviation analyst John Strickland of JLS Consulting. Speaking at a World Aviation Festival webinar, Strickland said that airlines may opt to trim flight frequencies rather than stimulate demand through lower fares, because the cost of fuel has made many services economically unviable.
“No matter how much airlines reduced prices to stimulate demand, they still wouldn't be covering the cost of the higher price of fuel,” Strickland said. The warning comes as the industry transitions from the peak summer season into a traditionally softer demand period, when carriers typically review route performance and adjust capacity.
Fuel costs to surge nearly 40%
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects fuel costs will rise by nearly 40% to $350 billion in 2026, with fuel representing 31.4% of total operating expenses. That pressure is already visible in surcharges: Cathay Pacific and Cathay Cargo raised fuel surcharges from August 1 as jet fuel costs spiked, and regional markets such as India have seen airfares surge amid fuel costs and aircraft shortages.
Strickland acknowledged that airlines have so far avoided a supply breakdown by securing alternative fuel sources and employing hedging strategies. However, he cautioned that these measures may not be enough to prevent a higher number of cancellations during the winter months.
“Airlines are closely monitoring booking levels and route performance to determine viable frequencies,” he said. For travel professionals, this means that schedule reliability could become a key issue for clients planning winter travel, particularly on thinner routes.
The situation is not uniform across the industry. Some carriers, such as WestJet, are expanding their winter networks with new sun routes, while others are retrenching. The divergence highlights how fuel costs interact with regional demand and competitive dynamics.
For travel agents and tour operators, the advice is to stay flexible and communicate potential schedule changes to clients. As Strickland noted, the industry has weathered fuel price spikes before, but the current combination of high costs and economic uncertainty makes this winter particularly challenging.
Strickland will moderate a panel on aviation growth at the World Aviation Festival in Lisbon from 13-15 October 2026, featuring several airline CEOs. The event will provide a platform for industry leaders to discuss strategies for coping with fuel costs and other pressures.
In the meantime, airlines are expected to make difficult decisions about which routes to maintain. For travel professionals, the key takeaway is to monitor schedule updates closely and consider alternative options for clients, especially on routes that may be at risk of frequency reductions.
