New data from OAG shows a dramatic reshuffling of air capacity in North East Asia, as diplomatic friction between Beijing and Tokyo continues to reshape route networks. Total global airline capacity in November 2026 reached 484.4 million seats, a modest 0.9% year-on-year increase, but the regional picture is far from uniform.
North East Asia: China-Japan slump, Korea surge
The most striking shift is the 40% reduction in seats between China and Japan, amounting to 780,000 fewer seats compared to November 2025. This reflects the ongoing diplomatic tensions that have prompted carriers on both sides to trim frequencies and suspend routes. In contrast, China-Korea capacity has surged by 27.4%, and Japan-Korea by 19%, making Korea China's busiest international market with approximately 1 million seats. The surge is partly driven by a boom in low-cost travel, as highlighted in our recent analysis of ultra-cheap South Korea tours that have raised concerns among local operators.
The pivot toward Korea is a clear strategic response by Chinese carriers to the Japan downturn, but it also reflects a broader regional realignment. Airlines are reallocating aircraft to markets with stronger demand and fewer geopolitical headwinds. The trend is consistent with the shifting tourism focus in Southeast Asia, as noted in our piece on Southeast Asia shifting tourism focus inland.
Middle East: Capacity contraction at major hubs
In the Middle East, airline capacity has fallen by 13.2%, or 3.1 million seats, year-on-year. Dubai International Airport (DXB) has seen a 15.6% reduction, equivalent to 826,000 fewer seats. Emirates and Qatar Airways have both reported declines in international available seat kilometres (ASKs) — down 4.4% and 4.8% respectively — while Etihad Airways has bucked the trend with a 12% increase. The divergence suggests a strategic repositioning among Gulf carriers, with Etihad aggressively expanding its network despite regional headwinds.
US: Alaska Airlines expands post-merger
In the United States, Alaska Airlines has added 1.4 million seats, a 29% increase, following its integration with Hawaiian Airlines. The Los Angeles–San Francisco corridor remains the busiest domestic route, with 380,300 seats, up 3.8% from last year. This growth underscores the resilience of US domestic travel, even as international markets face volatility.
Europe: LCCs gain ground
European low-cost carriers continue to gain market share. Wizz Air has increased its capacity by 18.7%, adding 1 million seats, while Lufthansa has trimmed its capacity by 563,000 seats. Spain has emerged as the fastest-growing domestic market among the top 10, with a 6.4% increase, reflecting robust tourism demand. The shift toward LCCs is a long-term trend that legacy carriers are watching closely, as they adjust their own networks to compete on price and frequency.
For travel professionals, these capacity shifts have direct implications for pricing, distribution, and partnership strategies. The China-Japan downturn, in particular, is a reminder of how geopolitical events can rapidly alter market dynamics. Airlines and agents should monitor these trends closely, as they may signal further adjustments in the coming months.
Meanwhile, other parts of Asia are seeing new collaborative ventures, such as the planned joint venture between Vietnam Airlines and ANA, and the first Kazakhstan-China airline joint venture between Air Astana and China Southern. These developments highlight the dynamic nature of the region's aviation landscape.
