As the summer travel season intensifies, airfares across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region remain elevated due to a combination of geopolitical tensions, rerouted flights, and strong seasonal demand. However, industry observers suggest that prices may begin to ease by July if regional airspace disruptions subside. Travelmao spoke with Alena Iakina, founder of visarun.ai, to unpack the dynamics shaping the GCC aviation market.
Key Drivers of Current Fare Hikes
Iakina attributes the surge primarily to higher operational costs triggered by regional conflicts. When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices climbed above $100 per barrel, pushing jet fuel to approximately $3.99 per gallon. Airlines have been forced to reroute flights to avoid Iranian airspace, adding up to three hours on routes between Europe and Asia. Carriers such as Emirates, Qatar Airways, Etihad Airways, and Kuwait Airways have all adjusted schedules accordingly.
If the Strait reopens, Iakina expects ticket prices to start dropping by July. If not, high fuel costs and pricing pressures may persist through the summer and potentially into 2027. Elevated fares are likely to continue at least through the third quarter.
Airspace Reopening and Traveler Behavior
Regional airspace has not reopened smoothly. The UAE briefly closed its airspace after Iranian strikes in early May, and Kuwait shut its airspace for two hours on June 6. As a result, travelers are avoiding Gulf connections and seeking long-haul direct flights, bypassing stopovers in Dubai and Doha. This has increased demand for nonstop services, while local carriers like Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad work to restore GCC connections.
European regulators still advise extra risk checks for Gulf routes, leading to higher insurance costs and less flexible schedules for non-Gulf airlines. Local carriers are recovering more quickly, but the overall environment remains uncertain.
Rise of Alternative Transit Hubs
Iakina notes that Istanbul has emerged as a popular hub primarily because it lies outside the conflict zone. Istanbul Airport has remained open without airspace restrictions, and Turkish Airlines has slowly restarted its Gulf routes. In contrast, Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi did not return to full schedules until later in the summer. During this period, travelers avoided hubs like Doha and Abu Dhabi, especially after Qatar Airways suspended regular flights. GCC travelers now prioritize predictability and avoiding conflict zones, even if it means paying more or sacrificing convenience.
Cost Pass-Through and Affordability
Airlines outside the US, including Cathay Pacific, Air France-KLM, Air India, Hong Kong Airlines, and FlySafair, now add fuel surcharges directly to ticket prices. Most US carriers instead incorporate these costs into the base fare. Iakina warns that travelers will likely continue to see higher prices because these are long-term issues, not temporary surcharges that end when the conflict does. Rerouting and insurance costs will persist even after hostilities cease.
Booking Strategies and Bargain Routes
For summer travel, Iakina recommends booking 8 to 10 weeks in advance to manage risks given limited flight options. Better deals can be found on shorter regional routes within the GCC, particularly on Gulf airlines rebuilding their schedules. Routes such as Bahrain-Saudi-Oman and Kuwait’s resumed flights avoid the extra fuel costs affecting long-haul fares. Travelers may also find value in Etihad Airways' summer capacity boost and Qatar Airways' expanded network.
Evolving Business Travel Patterns
Business travel in the Gulf is shifting toward shorter trips with greater flexibility. Iakina observes that more travelers are adding leisure time to short business trips, both globally and in the GCC. Companies still book economy flights but are spending more on better hotels, reliable internet, and locations close to business districts. Travelers are also staying longer to attend local cultural events. This trend drives demand for multi-entry and flexible visas, as well as last-minute changes to travel plans. Now, people expect flights, hotels, and visas to adjust together in real time, rather than managing each component separately.
As the region navigates these challenges, the outlook for airfares remains tied to geopolitical developments. If peace holds and airspace reopens fully, GCC travelers could see relief by July. Until then, flexibility and early planning will be key.
