Saudi Arabia's tourism sector continues to outperform regional headwinds, with the Kingdom welcoming 37.2 million visitors in the first quarter of 2026, an 8% year-on-year increase. The figures come from a new study by TOURISE and Oxford Economics that examines how destinations can build resilience against increasingly frequent global disruptions.
The report, titled Resilience in a World that Doesn’t Reset: Redesigning Tourism for an Era of Permanent Disruption, analyzes 85 major crises over two decades. It finds that destinations that prepare before a crisis strikes can recover up to 1.5 times faster than those that react only after disruption occurs. Saudi Arabia is cited as a prime example, with its tourism diversification under Vision 2030 translating into measurable resilience.
The Kingdom has also reached its target of 100 million annual visitors seven years ahead of schedule, according to the report. This milestone underscores the success of a strategy that has expanded beyond religious tourism into leisure, business, and luxury segments, with recent developments such as Rosewood AMAALA at Triple Bay adding to the Red Sea coast's appeal.
Gulf hubs under the microscope
The study uses the current Middle East crisis as a lens to assess the impact of disruption on international tourism, particularly given the Gulf's central role in global aviation. Gulf hubs account for around 14% of global transit traffic, meaning prolonged instability in the region could have far-reaching consequences for international travel.
The report models three scenarios for the current crisis. If the ceasefire holds, global travel is forecast to grow by around 6% in 2026. If hostilities resume, growth could decline by around 1%, while sustained disruption could result in a 3% contraction and continued weakness into 2027. Across all scenarios, the study concludes that recovery speed is determined less by the crisis itself than by how quickly destinations can restore traveller confidence, connectivity, and affordability.
Ahmed Al-Khateeb, Saudi Arabia's Minister of Tourism and Chairman of TOURISE, said: “In a world that does not reset between crises, disruption is a constant feature of the global tourism landscape. The real test for destinations measures how they prepare for volatility, protect traveller confidence, and maintain continuity ahead of such events.”
Recovery times are shrinking
The research also finds that tourism has become considerably quicker at bouncing back from major shocks. Average recovery times have fallen from around 24 months in the early 2000s to between 10 and 12 months today. However, increasingly complex disruptions affecting multiple countries are beginning to challenge that progress.
Traveller confidence is emerging as another major factor in destination resilience, particularly as misinformation spreads rapidly online. The report cites a 2025 example where viral rumours of a megaquake led to booking declines of up to 50% from some East Asian markets, despite no scientific basis for the claims.
Adam Sacks, President of Tourism Economics, said: “Global tourism has proven remarkably resilient, reaching a record 1.52 billion international arrivals in 2025 despite a decade defined by natural and man-made disasters. The lesson learned is that resilience can be built before disruption occurs, in the actions destinations take to prepare. In a world that no longer resets between crises, preparedness is becoming a core measure of competitiveness.”
For travel professionals, the implications are clear. Destinations that invest in crisis planning, diversify their source markets, and maintain strong connectivity are better positioned to weather shocks. Saudi Arabia's performance, alongside its Saudia's punctuality record and growing partnerships such as the ANA and Riyadh Air MoU, illustrates how a coordinated approach can sustain growth even in a volatile environment.
The report ultimately argues that resilience must become a core component of long-term tourism strategy, not just a reactive measure. Preparedness, traveller confidence, connectivity, and affordability will be the key determinants of how quickly tourism economies can withstand and recover from future disruptions.
